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Labour 18-point lead over Conservatives

5 June 2024
BlogPost 104949211346 Labour 18-point lead over Conservatives lang

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Verian’s first political opinion poll of the 2024 General Election campaign shows an 18-point Labour lead over the Conservatives. 

Verian’s research took place between the evening of 30th May and midday 3rd June 2024, using our Public Voice random sample panel. Our restrictive method of panel-building provides benefits in terms of sample and data quality when compared to many other panels used in the UK for polling. Fieldwork was conducted prior to the announcement that Nigel Farage had returned as leader of Reform UK, and the first Leaders debate.

General Election voting intentions (30 May - 3rd June)

  • Labour 41%
  • Conservative 23%
  • Liberal Democrat 12%
  • Reform UK 9%
  • Green 8%
  • SNP 3%
  • Other 3%

Voting_Intention_2

Key campaign issues

The economy and the NHS are currently the most important issues for voters when deciding who to vote for in the upcoming UK general election, with immigration third.

  • The economy - 32%
  • The NHS-  29%
  • Immigration - 13%
  • The environment - 7%
  • Education - 5%
  • Reducing Crime - 4%
Issue_by_age_2 (1)

Views on the next Prime Minister

When asked to choose between Rishi Sunak and Keir Starmer as the best leader for Britain, over a third (37%) chose Keir Starmer, compared to 18% who chose Rishi Sunak. However, 34% of people chose neither, and 11% do not know.

Key differences by age

Labour lead among all age groups of likely voters, except those aged 65 plus, where the Conservatives have a 10-point lead (39% vs 29%). The 65 plus are also the only age group to favour Rishi Sunak over Keir Starmer as the best leader for Britain (30% vs 26%). Although 38% chose neither.

Reform UK support is highest among likely voters aged 55 plus (15%). Whereas only 4% of likely voters aged under 55 currently plan to vote for Reform UK in the upcoming election. This appears to be primarily related to attitudes towards immigration and the EU.

  • A fifth (20%) of those aged 55 plus say immigration is the most important issue when deciding who to vote for at the election, compared with only 8% of those aged under 55. 
  • Two-in-five (45%) of those aged 55 plus say that they would vote to stay out of the EU if a new referendum on EU membership was held, compared to only 16% of those aged under 55.
People aged under 55 are the most likely to report that they will vote for Labour at the General Election (52%). They have particular concerns guiding their vote choice:
  • The most important issue for under 55s in deciding who to vote for is the economy (36%) followed by the NHS (27%). Whereas only 8% say immigration is the most important issue.

  • Two-in-five (42%) of those aged under 55 think that the British economy is doing worse than 12 months ago. Compared with only 23% of those aged 55 plus.

  • People aged under 55 are also more likely to report that they are finding it harder to meet their monthly budgets compared to a year ago (58% vs 45% of the 55 plus). 

Methodological information

A total of 1,405 interviews were conducted online among adults living in Great Britain between the evening of the 30th May and midday on the 3rd June 2024. The survey data tables and further details on the methodological approach and weighting will be published on the Verian website by 5pm on 5th June 2024.

Our sample was drawn from Verian’s random sample panel Public Voice. This panel is used extensively for social research commissioned by government, academic and third sector organisations, including those based in the US and Europe. Membership of this panel is restricted to those living in a controlled sample of UK addresses drawn from the Royal Mail’s master database. This restrictive method of panel-building is relatively expensive but will ordinarily provide benefits in terms of sample and data quality when compared with a panel that any adult resident in the UK can join. Although the short-period fieldwork web-only protocol used for this poll is much more limited than is typical for a social research survey, the demographic and political composition of the sample is only modestly degraded compared to what could be obtained using the full social research data collection protocol (two to three weeks using both web and telephone interview modes).

The data was weighted to match population totals for age, gender, 2019 General Election voting patterns, 2016 EU referendum voting patterns, education, region, and likelihood to vote in the next General Election. 

Previous UK polling

 

Media enquiries

For further information on any of the data and findings from the report please contact Lois.Taylor@veriangroup.com or PressEnquiries@veriangroup.com 

Richard Crawshaw Headshot
Richard Crawshaw

Senior Research Scientist
United Kingdom

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