Britain Barometer December 2022

The Britain Barometer is our regular polling of public opinion in Britain.  We cover a range of topics including political views and voting intentions, the economy, government policies and emerging issues important to the British public.

15 December 2022, London – Kantar Public’s latest barometer reveals that just over two thirds of Britons are concerned that they will not be able to afford to keep their homes warm this winter and that six in ten are finding it harder to meet their monthly household budget compared to a year ago.

Kantar Public’s research took place between the afternoon of 8 December and 12 December.

Key findings include:

• Over two thirds of Britons (68%) are very/fairly concerned that they will not be able to afford to keep their homes warm enough this winter. This is an increase of +7%pts compared to December 2021.
• 59% of Britons said they were finding it harder to meet their monthly household budget compared to 41% a year ago (+18 vs December 2021).
  Britons are increasingly divided over whether, in general, they support recent strikes around pay and conditions announced by a number of professional bodies:
  •  46% generally strongly/slightly support the strikes (+4 vs November 2022)
  •  43% generally strongly/slightly oppose the strikes (+4)
  • 10% of Britons don’t know whether they support or oppose the strikes (-9)
• When asked about strike action among people in specific professions:
  
  • Britons were most likely to strongly/slightly support strike action among: Nurses (54%), Ambulance workers (50%) and Firefighters (48%).
  • They were most likely to strongly/slightly oppose strike action among: Driving test examiners (51%), University staff (51%), Railway workers (50%) and Airport baggage handlers (50%).

More detailed analysis on themes

1. Household-level economic situation

The chart below shows that the portion of Britons finding it harder to meet their household budget has increased over the last year, reaching a high of 64% in May 2022 and has remained relatively stable through the latter half of the year.

• 71% think the British economy is doing worse than it was a year ago (-6 vs November 2022). 23% think it is doing much the same (+5) but only 6% think it is doing better (+2).
• The chart below shows the portion of Britons that think the economy is doing worse than a year ago has increased over the last year from 44% in December 2021, while the proportion who think it is doing better has decreased from 16% in December 2021.
  
  

• Just under half of Britons (48%) think that the British economy will be doing worse than it is now in a years’ time (+2 Vs November 2022). 12% think that it will be doing better than it is now (-2).
• The chart below shows the proportion of Britons who think the economy will be doing worse in a years’ time increased from 28% in December 2021, peaking at 55% in August 20223. The portion of Britons that think the economy will be doing better than it is now has decreased from 23% in December 2021.

• Just over two thirds of Britons (68%) are very/fairly concerned that they will not be able to afford to keep their homes warm enough this winter (+7 vs January 20224). A quarter of Britons (27%) are not very or not at all concerned that they will not be able to afford to keep their homes warm enough this winter (-7 vs January 2022). Only 5% said they did not know (-1).
• Over half (59%) of Britons said they were finding it harder to meet their monthly household budget compared to a year ago (nc vs November 2022). This is 18%pts higher than in December 2021, when 41% of Britons said they were finding it harder.
• Around three quarters of Britons (77%, +4 vs November 2022) think the government is handling cost of living very/fairly poorly. 17% (nc) think the government has handled the crisis very/fairly well. 7% are not sure (-4).

2. Strikes

Britons are increasingly divided over whether, in general, they support recent strikes around pay and conditions announced by a number of professional bodies:

• 46% strongly/slightly support the strikes (+4 vs November)
• 71% of 2019 Labour voters strongly/slightly support the strikes (-2).
• A majority of 18-24 year-olds support the strikes (57%, +18), 54% of those aged between 25-34 years old (+4) support the strikes.

• 43% strongly/slightly oppose the strikes (+4 vs November 2022)
  • 71% of 2019 Conservative voters oppose the strikes (+9).
  • Six in ten (60%) of those aged 65+ oppose the strikes (+2). Nearly half (47%, +2 of those aged 55-64 oppose the strikes.
• 10% of Britons don’t know whether they support or oppose the strikes (-9 vs November 2022)

When asked about strike action among people in specific professions, the public remains divided.

• Britons were most likely to strongly/slightly support strike action among:
  
  • Nurses (54% support and 36% oppose)
  • Ambulance workers (50% support and 40% oppose)
  • Firefighters (48% support and 41% oppose)
• They were most likely to strongly/slightly oppose strike action among:
  
  • Driving test examiners (51% oppose and 31% support)
  • University staff (51% oppose and 35% support)
  • Railway workers (50% oppose and 40% support)
  • Airport baggage handlers (50% oppose and 37% support)
• Britons were more evenly divided over whether they support or oppose strike action among:
  
  • Teachers: 45% of Britons strongly/slightly oppose teachers striking over pay and conditions. 44% strongly/slightly support
  • Doctors: 47% of Britons strongly/slightly oppose doctors striking, 43% of Britons strong/slightly support them.
  • Postal workers: 46% Britons strongly/slightly oppose postal workers striking, 42% of Britons strong/slightly support them.

• “It’s perhaps not surprising that we see greater levels of public support for emergency front line workers, who we would all depend on in an acute crisis, than other day to day services where perceived importance or usage by the public may vary.”
  - Craig Watkins, Kantar Public, UK CEO

3. Brexit

When asked how they would vote if a new referendum on EU membership was held:

• 37% of Britons said they would vote to apply to join the EU (+2 vs June 20225)
  
  • 14% of those who voted to leave the EU in 2016 would now vote to apply to join the EU (+5)
  • 32% of those that did not vote in the 2016 referendum say they would now vote to apply (+2)
• 27% said they would vote to stay out of the EU (-7 vs June 2022)
  
  • 11% of those who voted to remain in the EU in 2016 would vote to stay out of the EU (-7)
  • 8% of those that did not vote in the 2016 referendum say they would now vote to leave (-5)
• 20% said they would not vote (+2)
• 15% did not know (+3)

When asked whether it was right or wrong for Britain to vote to leave the EU in 2016:

• • 35% of Britons say Britain was right to vote to leave the EU in 2016
    
    • Three quarters (75%) of those who voted to leave the EU in 2016 say Britain was right to do so
    • 9% of those who voted to remain in 2016, say Britain was right to vote to leave in 2016
  • 45% of Britons say Britain was wrong to vote to leave the EU in 2016
    
    • 82% of those who voted to remain in the EU in 2016, say Britain was wrong to vote to leave the EU
    • 17% of those who voted to leave the EU in 2016, say Britain was wrong to vote to leave the EU
  • 20% of Britons don’t know where Britain was right or wrong to leave the EU in 2016

5. Voting Intentions 

• Labour 46% (+1 vs November 2022)
• Conservatives 29% (-1)
• Liberal Democrats 9% (+1)
• Green 5% (+1)
• SNP 5% (nc)
• Reform UK 4% (-1)
• UKIP 2% (nc)
• Plaid Cymru <1% (nc)
• Other 1% (-1)

Methodological information

A total of 1,146 interviews were conducted online among adults living in Great Britain between the 31 August and 4 September 2023. All interviews were conducted online using the Kantar Research Express. The Kantar Profiles online access panel was the main sample source.

The data was weighted to match population totals for age, gender, 2019 General Election voting patterns, 2016 EU referendum voting patterns, education, region, and likelihood to vote in the next General Election. Any use of this research must cite Kantar Public as the source.

This Britain Barometer was issued under our former global brand name: Kantar Public.