Forecasting the largest transnational elections in the world: European Elections 2019
Political, Opinion and Electoral
The Verian Election Team is a global team with deep expertise providing independent, robust, tried and tested electoral research solutions for upcoming elections around the world.
On 23-26 May 2019, the European Parliamentary elections were held across 28 countries - the biggest transnational democratic exercise in the world. Verian (formerly Kantar Public) were appointed as the election forecasting partner to the European Parliament. We were required to provide first results at both Member States and European levels, and reliable information on the participation and future composition of the European Parliament, made available to the media, stakeholders and the public as soon as possible after polls closed. This required synchronised forecasting across the (then) EU 28, and simultaneous reporting.
Our team executed a solution which combined operational quality and breadth, with deep electoral and forecasting expertise. Our polling team in Brussels conducted continuous projections in seats of the future European Parliament from September 2018 to May 2019 to anticipate the results. With political experts in almost all EU Member States, and the ability and in-house expertise to conduct all aspects of the monitoring and forecasting, our team were able to deliver near real time reporting of results on election night itself.
Turnout for the European Parliamentary elections in 2019 was at the highest level for decades, with more than 50% of Europeans voting. Verian played a pivotal role in this historic moment for democracy feeding back projections and predicted results in a 12-hour, multi-county electoral marathon, with exceptional forecasting accuracy.
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