Reform UK leads the polls yet almost half of Britons say they would never consider voting for them

18^th December, London

Verian’s latest political opinion finds that Labour has fallen to third place as Reform lead the Conservatives by 6 percentage points. However, just under half (47%) of Britons would never consider voting for Reform in their constituency. Tactical voting is likely to be a key factor in the next election, as a quarter (25%) would be very/fairly likely to switch their vote to another party if their preferred party was unlikely to win in their constituency.

Verian’s research took place between 12^th and 15^th December 2025, using our Public Voice random sample panel. Our restrictive method of panel-building provides benefits in terms of sample and data quality when compared to many other panels used in the UK for polling.

General Election voting Intentions (12 – 15 December 2025):

• Reform UK 27% (+3 compared with April 2025)
• Conservative 21% (+2)
• Labour 18% (-7)
• Liberal Democrat 15% (-1)
• Green 13% (+4)
• SNP 3% (no change)
• Other 3% (-2)

Tactical voting

Just under half (46%) are confident they know which parties have a realistic chance of winning in their constituency at the next general election.

• One in five (21%) are not very/not at all confident, a similar proportion (21%) are neutral. 12% do not know.

Four in ten (40%) are very/fairly unlikely to switch their vote if their first-choice party is unlikely to win in their constituency at the next election. A quarter (25%) are very/fairly likely to switch their vote. 18% are neither likely nor unlikely to and 16% do not know.

• Those intending to vote for Reform or Conservative are least open to switching their vote:
  • 53% of Reform supporters, and 51% of Conservative supporters are very/fairly unlikely to switch their vote
  • Those intending to vote Labour are most likely to consider switching their vote, as 38 % are very/fairly likely to do so.

Among those very/fairly likely to switch their vote, the main reason for switching are:

• To prevent a specific party from winning (71%).
• To support a party with a better chance of winning (27%).

Among those very/fairly likely to switch their vote if their preferred party was unlikely to win in their constituency, the most considered alternative parties to vote for were:

• Liberal Democrats (29%)
• Green Party (26%)
• Conservatives (22%)
• Labour (20%)
• Reform (12%)

When asked whether there are any parties they would never consider voting for:

• 47% would never consider voting for Reform
• 40% would never consider voting for Labour
• 30% would never consider voting for the Conservatives
• 27% would never consider voting for the Green party
• 21% would never consider voting for the Liberal Democrats

Key policy issues

When asked to select the three most important issues for the UK government to tackle to improve public life, the most important issues are:

• Reducing the cost of living for households (42%, -1 compared with April 2025)
• Investing more in NHS capacity (38%, -2)
• Stricter border controls to reduce immigration (36%, +1)
• Growing the UK’s economy (28%, -2)
• Reducing crime (23%, +2)

Economic outlook

The general population are pessimistic about the economy:

• Almost two thirds (63%) think the economy is doing worse than a year ago (+1 compared with our April 2025 poll), a third (34%) think it is doing much the same (+1), and only 4% think it is doing better (-1).
• Looking ahead, half expect the economy to be doing worse in a years’ time than it is now (47%, -6) Meanwhile, 47% expect the economy to be doing much the same as it is now (+9), and only 6% expect the economy to be doing better than it is now (-2).

The cost-of-living challenge persists, and people report finding it increasingly difficult to manage:

• Almost two thirds (63%) are finding it harder to meet their monthly household budget than a year ago (+1 compared with April),
• A third (34%) are finding it about the same (no change), and
• Only 2% are finding it easier (-2).

Methodological information

A total of 1,427 interviews were conducted online among adults living in Great Britain between the afternoon of the 12^th and morning of 15^th December 2025. The survey data tables and further details on the methodological approach and weighting will be published on the Verian website by 18^th December 2025.

Our sample was drawn from Verian’s random sample panel Public Voice. This panel is used extensively for social research commissioned by government, academic and third sector organisations, including those based in the US and Europe. Membership of this panel is restricted to those living in a controlled sample of UK addresses drawn from the Royal Mail’s master database. This restrictive method of panel-building is relatively expensive but will ordinarily provide benefits in terms of sample and data quality when compared with a panel that any adult resident in the UK can join. Although the short-period fieldwork web-only protocol used for this poll is much more limited than is typical for a social research survey, the demographic and political composition of the sample is only modestly degraded compared to what could be obtained using the full social research data collection protocol (two to three weeks using both web and telephone interview modes).

The data was weighted to match population totals for age, gender, 2024 General Election voting patterns, education, region, and likelihood to vote in the next General Election.

Notes

For further information on any of the data and findings from the report please contact PressEnquiries@veriangroup.com